In the state’s 5th district, Republican Rep. Scott Garrett should, by all traditional measures, be in significant trouble heading into 2008.
Garrett won last year with 55 percent of the vote, and a consultant familiar with the district said he has continued to be successful largely because of historically Republican Bergen County, part of which Garrett represents.
The problem, or problems, for Garrett lie in a county GOP that was once consolidated and strong, but in recent years has fallen into near-total disarray — the Rothenberg Report recently noted the party’s county headquarters was padlocked earlier this year because of failure to pay rent.
The phones at the county headquarters are apparently disconnected; repeated calls to the number listed on its website were met with an operator’s message.
That “collapse,” as the consultant put it, could lead to a primary challenge for Garrett, opening the door to an early-funded Democrat riding the strength of a county Democratic Party that has grown in influence.
This is good news.
5 comments:
Beat me to it, Theresa!
This line:
That “collapse,” as the consultant put it, could lead to a primary challenge for Garrett, opening the door to an early-funded Democrat riding the strength of a county Democratic Party that has grown in influence.
really stuck out to me. If we're going to get this guy out of office, we're going to need to put the pedal to the metal.
this is great to see, and long overdue. At Big Orange, kos posted a listing of potential seats that should be targeted which were not targeted last time around.
NJ-5 was on the list as a 2nd or 3rd tier (of the B-list).
What we need to figure out is how to get LTEs and OpEds published that show Garrett's true colors.
Especially in counties not named Bergen.
You know, clammy, I hear that a lot. Not that I disagree that the non-Bergen counties need attention- they do. (And I think Arohnson's campaign did a pretty good job "out there", considering.)
But unless I'm missing something, Dem money and effort is way better spent in Bergen:
2006
Bergen total votes: 124,322
All others combined: 71,237
(from CNN.com. here's the Bergen numbers- http://151.198.187.55/countyclerk/2006%20General/2006_General.pdf)
I also have the feeling that money and effort in Bergen would have more of a chance of spreading westward than the other way around. Seems to me that just as much effort has to be spent on turnout in Bergen as on expanding the appeal of the Dem candidate in non-Bergen.
Does that make any sense?
agree, Sidd, but I wonder what the breakdown of votes was in the other counties.
If it is skewed alot in favor of Garrett, then even swinging it to a 55-45 margin should be enough...
Where can we get all sorts of demographic breakdowns? I would love to do some sort of analysis on this.
a wealth of knowledge, sidd is.
http://www.state.nj.us/oag/elections/2006results/2006_voter_regs_stats.html
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